Baghdad Bombs Oct 25 2009

Baghdad Bombs Oct 25 2009 At least 147 people were killed in two car bombings in central Baghdad yesterday, bringing fears of a blood-drenched election campaign. The attacks, the deadliest in two years, occurred along a road thronged with traffic. They destroyed three government buildings: the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Public Works and the Baghdad governor’s office, where ten members of parliament were attending a meeting. The bombs exploded within two minutes of each other at about 10.30am. First came the smaller bomb outside the governorate, which caused pedestrians to flee 500 metres north towards a ministerial complex, where the larger bomb went off. The dead included 35 employees at the Ministry of Justice and at least 25 staff members of the Baghdad Provincial Council, according to Iraqi police and medical sources. Related Links Hospitals struggled to cope with more than 700 casualties, including three American contractors, and smoke hung over the city for hours.

The GCP event was set for 6 hours beginning 1 hour before the explosions (06:30 - 12:30 GMT). The result is Chisquare 21919.047 on 21600 df, for p = 0.063 and Z = 1.531.

Baghdad Bombs Oct
25 2009

Partly because there has been a fair amount of web chatter about October 25th being a day to note, and partly to provide context for the 6 hour period of the Baghdad bombing event, the following figure shows the 24 hour GMT day.

Baghdad Bombs Oct
25 2009

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.


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